Dr. John Marshall | Close-kin Mark-recapture Methods to Estimate Demographic and Dispersal Parameters of Mosquitoes

October 8th, 2025 

Seminar at 9:00 am - Q&A at 10:00 am
 

Talk title: Close-kin mark-recapture methods to estimate demographic and dispersal parameters of mosquitoes

Abstract: Close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) methods have recently been used to infer demographic parameters such as census population size and survival for fish of interest to fisheries and conservation. These methods have advantages over traditional mark-recapture methods as the mark is genetic, removing the need for physical marking and recapturing that may interfere with parameter estimation. Here, we extend CKMR methods to the life history of mosquitoes and comparable insects. We derive kinship probabilities for mother-offspring, father-offspring, full-sibling and half-sibling pairs, where an individual in each pair may be a larva, pupa or adult. A pseudo-likelihood approach is used to combine the marginal probabilities of all kinship pairs. To test the effectiveness of this approach at estimating mosquito demographic and dispersal parameters, we develop an individual-based model of mosquito life history incorporating egg, larva, pupa and adult life stages. Using the dengue vector Aedes aegypti as a case study, we find the CKMR approach provides unbiased estimates of adult census population size, adult and larval mortality rates, mean daily dispersal distance, and the strength of a barrier to movement for logistically feasible sampling schemes. The methods are also effective at detecting intervention-induced increases in adult mortality and decreases in population size. As the cost of genome sequencing declines, CKMR holds great promise for characterizing the demography of mosquitoes and comparable insects of epidemiological and agricultural significance.

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Dr. John Marshall

Professor, School of Public Health, UC Berkeley

john.marshall@berkeley.edu | Personal page

Host: Mary Sehl

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